NFL Week 10 Sharp Money Report: Vegas wiseguys, public both back 49ers despite Jags’ ATS record

LAS VEGAS — Even now, as Jacksonville sports an NFL-best 6-2 ATS record, tied with Detroit, and has won and covered five in a row, and San Francisco has lost and not covered its past three games, many overlook the Jaguars.

Six-foot-six quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the third-year Clemson product, and his Jags play host to the Niners on Sunday but didn’t even open as favorites in their own yard.

In fact, betting began at San Francisco -2.5 and soon moved to -3, surprising BetMGM director of trading Lamarr Mitchell.

“The Sharps and Joe Public are all on the Niners,” Mitchell says. “I don’t know why people aren’t buying into the Jags. It’s like, after the fact, talking about the Chargers-Jets game.

“How were the Chargers only small favorites at the Jets? How is that possible? Well, I don’t know how.”

The Chargers opened as 1.5-point favorites Monday night at New York, money moved it to -3, and LA tallied 14 first-quarter points in an easy 27-6 triumph.

“The Niners have the name and the coach [Kyle Shanahan], the clout and the defense,” Mitchell adds. “Everyone’s just overlooking these Jaguars. Lawrence was the No. 1 draft pick for a reason.

“They’ve put some pieces around him, gave him skill players, and [Doug] Pederson is a proven coach who has won a Super Bowl. It’s a weird spot, that the sharps and squares are on the Niners at Jacksonville.”

However, an East Coast professional bettor with whom I spoke Wednesday afternoon — who made a mint betting Jacksonville +5 in its 25-20 victory over Buffalo in England on Oct. 8 — is lying in wait for this spread to hit 3.5.

“Then I’ll pounce,” he says. “I see everyone loving on ‘San Fran’ simply because of their name. They’ve scored 17 points in three consecutive games. Meanwhile, the Jags’ name alone just keeps people betting against them. I love it.”

What teams are public and sharp bettors on in NFL Week 10?

Here’s an insider look at some of the best NFL games in Week 10. 

Houston Texans (4-4, 4-4 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS)

  • Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
  • Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH


Cincy fourth-year QB Joe Burrow is doing it again, starting slow and warming as the calendar ekes into late November. A 1-3 start has been rectified with four consecutive victories.

“As Joe Burrow goes, the team goes,” Mitchell says. “Amazing. And now the defense is rocking and rolling.”

In the streak, Burrow has a pair of 300-yard throwing games, 10 TDs and two interceptions. The Bengals’ defense has yielded 17 points a game, allowing four passing TDs and picking off seven passes.

“The public is on the Bengals, by a 2-to-1 ticket count. But the sharps bet that total Over 46.5.”

It opened 44.5, moved up and, at 46.5, big cash bumped it to 48 on Wednesday.

Bengals vs. Texans odds, props, predictions

New Orleans Saints (5-4, 2-6-1) at Minnesota Vikings (5-4, 5-3-1)

  • Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
  • U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN


With about five hours to thumb through the Vikings’ playbook, new QB Josh Dobbs threw two TD passes Sunday in a 31-28 victory in Atlanta, the decider coming with 22 ticks left from six yards out to Brandon Powell.

The Saints have dropped seven of their past nine games in Minneapolis. After a shaky five-game stretch, though, QB Derek Carr went 44-for-61, for 521 yards, four TDs and no picks, in beating the Colts and Bears the past two weeks.

The BetMGM money and ticket count, Mitchell says, is about even, with no extra interest from either sharps or Joe Public. But the total has been bumped 2.5 points from its opener.

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Green Bay Packers (3-5, 4-4 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3, 5-3 ATS)

  • Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
  • Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA


Mitchell says a very sharp player took Pittsburgh -3, when the 2.5 opener had moved a half-point. When it hit 3.5, another professional took the points. By Thursday, it was back at 3 with extra juice on the Steelers.

A 38 opener got bet to 39 on Tuesday, before waves of coin moved it to 37.5 by Wednesday evening. By Thursday it had eked back to 39.

Over their previous three games, both are among the bottom third of the league in points-per-play rate, Green Bay (0.246) having been less efficient than Pittsburgh (0.300). The Packers, however, are better on the road (at 0.409), the Steelers worse at home (0.264).

“With those offenses, I’m looking at a 17-13 game,” Mitchell adds. “The way those offenses are playing, [OVER wagers] made me scratch my head.”

The Packers’ five previous trips to Pittsburgh, since 1980, have been defeats, by an average score of 28.8-21.4.

San Francisco 49ers (5-3, 4-4 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2, 6-2 ATS)

  • Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
  • TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL


San Francisco receiver Deebo Samuel (shoulder) sat out two consecutive games, and the Niners were idle last weekend. He returned to practice Wednesday, reportedly as a “full-go,” and his participation is vital.

In five games before the injury, he caught 20 passes for 302 yards and a TD, collecting 84 rushing yards with another score.

In their past three games, the Jaguars’ PPP margin of 0.242 is second in the league to Baltimore (0.384).

49ers vs. Jaguars Odds, props, predictions

Cleveland Browns (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (7-2, 6-3 ATS)

  • Sunday, 1 p.m.
  • M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD


Take away a 40-25 triumph in Baltimore in September 2019 and the Browns have dropped six in a row in Maryland, by an average score of 25.8-12.8.

“These two AFC North teams don’t like each other,” Mitchell says, “and sharps and squares are on the Ravens by a 4-to-1 ticket count … we haven’t seen too much with sharps, on the total, so far.”

Browns vs. Ravens odds, props, predictions

Detroit Lions (6-2, 6-2 ATS) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-4, 4-4 ATS)

  • Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
  • SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA


Since the Rams moved from St. Louis back to LA, the Lions lost their only game in Southern California. This is their first game against the Chargers in LA, but in San Diego the Lions were a lifetime 0-5.

In his three seasons, though, coach Dan Campbell has transformed Detroit, which is an NFL-best 29-13 (69%) ATS during his reign.

This opened Chargers -1.5 but flipped, charging to Lions -3 by Wednesday night.

“The public and sharps are all on the Lions,” Mitchell says. “Everyone is looking at the Lions as one of the top four teams in the NFC, and they’ve been pretty helpful for a lot of bettors.”

Not for the book?

“Depends. Up and down for us. One week we’ll need them, then we’ll get a big casino player come in and bet six figures on the Lions; and we’ll need the other side.”

Lions vs. Chargers odds, props, predictions

New York Giants (2-7, 2-6-1 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (5-3, 5-3 ATS)

  • Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
  • AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX


When it was revealed Monday that NY QB Daniel Jones’s season was over (torn right ACL), this opener of Dallas -9.5 soared to 16.5, while its total of 40.5 has been shaved.

“I hate to say this,” Mitchell says, “but it could be a game where Dallas covers the total by itself. Tickets are 5-1 in favor of the Cowboys, the money is about 2.5-1.

“It’s a big number, but I guess Joe Public could come back and say that it’s too big come Sunday.”

Giants vs. Cowboys odds, props, predictions

Washington Commanders (4-5, 4-4-1 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS)

  • Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Lumen Field, Seattle, WA


This 5.5 opener quickly moved up a point.

“Sharps are on the Seahawks, especially at 6,” Mitchell says. “The Seahawks return home licking some wounds from the shellacking they took in Baltimore, but the public and sharps are definitely on the Seahawks.”

As a 6-point dog, Seattle got slapped, 37-3, by the Ravens on Sunday. Since 2008, Washington is 3-0 in the Emerald City, winning by scores of 17-14, 23-17 and 20-17.

Almost too quietly, Washington QB Sam Howell has climbed to No. 2 in the league in passing yards, with 2,471, behind Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa (2,609).

One forecast calls for a mid-50s temperature and 40 percent chance of rain throughout the game.

Denver Broncos (3-5, 2-5-1 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (5-4, 3-6 ATS)

  • Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY


After this opened 8.5, action shaved off a point by Wednesday. Still, tickets favor Buffalo by a 3-1 margin.

“There hasn’t been a lot of money on this,” Mitchell says, “but I expect more to come in Friday and Saturday.”

On the road, Denver yields 529 total yards per game to foes. At 395, the Giants are No. 31.

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