Girona vs Atletico Madrid prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for La Liga match with title implications

Girona continue their surprising hunt for a potentially legendary La Liga title as they host Atletico Madrid in Catalonia on Wednesday.

Real Madrid lead the La Liga standings as the calendar turns to 2024, but Girona are level on points with Los Blancos and have a real shot at pushing for the crown.

Atletico Madrid sit third, but are seven points adrift in what appears for now to be a two-horse race. Diego Simeone’s side are level with Barcelona on points but ahead on goal differential, and will hope to spring an upset here to solidify their standing and put Barca deeper in debt. 

Additionally, there are two Golden Boot contenders in this match hoping to find the net. Artem Dovbyk leads Girona’s entertaining title charge with 11 goals, sitting two behind league leader Jude Bellingham. Level with Dovbyk is Antoine Griezmann, who enjoyed a prolific and under-the-radar 2023.

Girona vs Atletico Madrid prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Girona (+155)
  • Score prediction: Girona 3-1 Atletico Madrid

Girona are a force to be reckoned with, and it’s time everyone begins to respect their legitimacy in the La Liga title race. Atletico Madrid simply have too many flaws to handle a road date with a team in as good of form as Girona.

Atleti gave up 19 shots to Almeria back in mid-December, and then an outrageous 29 shots at home against Getafe in a bonkers 3-3 draw. They stifled a slumping Sevilla side last time out, but even then fell a man down with 20 minutes to go. Diego Simeone’s defensive stranglehold on La Liga is slipping, and Girona are positioned well to take advantage.

Girona win +150
Draw +235
Atletico Madrid win +165
Both teams to score Y/N -195 / +155
Over / Under 2.5 goals -155 / +115

Girona vs Atletico Madrid match facts

  • Date: Wednesday, January 3
  • Kickoff Time: 8:30 p.m. local (3:30 p.m. ET / 12:30 p.m. PT)
  • Location: Estadi Montilvivi (Girona, Spain)
  • Official: Alejandro Jose Hernandez
  • Last meeting: Girona 0-1 Atletico Madrid (Mar. 13, 2023 | La Liga)

MORE: Can Girona win the La Liga title? A look at the odds and how they can achieve the incredible

Girona vs Atletico Madrid best bet

  • Pick: Over 3.0 total goals
  • Odds: +105 (DraftKings)

These two teams are all about efficiency this season, meaning that while the shot props may not be as profitable, there will still surely be goals in this match. Atletico Madrid and Girona do not hammer opponents with waves of efforts on goal, but they boast the top two most efficient offenses in the Spanish top flight this season, each collecting a very healthy 0.14 xG/shot mark on the year.

Even if there aren’t loads of chances in this match, there should be enough attacking output — and enough defensive miscues, especially by Atleti, who have one of the league’s worst defensive differentials with 17.84 xGOTA and 19 goals conceded (-1.16).

Girona vs Atletico Madrid prop bet

  • Pick: Half with most goals — 2H
  • Odds: -110 (DraftKings)

While Artem Dovbyk gets the headlines for his Golden Boot challenge, Girona have an ace up their sleeve in Cristhian Stuani, who has embodied the super sub mentality and been a key to the club’s title charge.

The 37-year-old captain has started just five La Liga games this season (one since mid-September) and tallied just 567 minutes, but has knocked in six goals and assisted two more. He bagged a brace off the bench in a 2-1 victory over Valencia in early December, and the very next game provided a goal and assist late to stun Barcelona.

Thanks in part to Stuani’s leadership late in games, Girona have scored 23 second-half goals this year, joint-second in La Liga with Barcelona, behind only Real Madrid’s 25. Furthermore, Girona are the most prolific team in La Liga from the 30-minute mark on, with 35 of their 42 goals this year coming after that point.

Atletico Madrid profile very similarly, with 20 second-half goals this year, including 17 after the 60-minute mark. There should be some late fireworks in this match to decide who has the points.

Girona vs Atletico Madrid live stream, TV channel

Region TV channel Streaming
USA ESPN Deportes Fubo, ESPN+, WatchESPN
Canada  — TSN+
UK Viaplay Sports 1, La Liga TV Viaplay

In the United States, all La Liga matches throughout the 2023/24 season are streamed in English and Spanish on ESPN+ for premium subscribers. This match between Girona and Atletico Madrid has been selected for television broadcast in Spanish on ESPN Deportes, with that channel available to stream via Fubo.

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