After beating Milan 3-1 away from home on matchday five, Borussia Dortmund are already assured of a place in this season’s Champions League’s knockout rounds after negotiating this year’s ‘group of death’.
On the sixth and final matchday of the group stages, Dortmund entertain PSG at Signal Iduna Park as the German side look for revenge following their defeat in Paris, hoping to cement top spot in Group F.
This match, however, should prove difficult for the home side as Kylian Mbappe and co arrive in western Germany unbeaten in five outings, four of which finished in victory.
The visitors also need to win here to guarantee a top two finish, although even a draw or loss may be good enough for progression depending on the other result between Newcastle and Milan at St James’ Park.
The Sporting News previews the game below with our prediction and best bets.
Dortmund vs PSG match facts
- Date: Wednesday, December 13, 2023
- Kickoff time: 9:00 p.m. local (3:00 p.m. ET / 12:00 a.m. PT)
- Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund, Germany)
- Last meeting: PSG 2-0 Borussia Dortmund (September 19, 2023 | Champions League)
Dortmund vs PSG prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: PSG (+285)
- Score prediction: Borussia Dortmund 1-3 PSG
to score Y / N
|Over / Under
|-175 / +140
|-165 / +130
*Odds correct as on December 11.
Dortmund vs PSG best bet
- Pick: Over 3.5 goals scored
- Odds: +155 (DraftKings)
Considering that PSG have struggled defensively in the Champions League so far this season and that Dortmund haven’t kept a clean sheet in six outings, backing a high-scoring affair in this clash could be the way to go.
Over 2.5 goals scored sits at -165 with DraftKings but if you push it to 3.5, the odds dramatically improve to +155. with PSG needing a positive result here, expect the reigning French champions to fly out of the blocks here in Dortmund.
That will undoubtedly lead to chances for Mbappe and others, but it will also likely leave plenty of space for their German hosts to exploit on the break.
For reference, three of Dortmund’s past five competitive matches have cleared this bar, two of which have come at home – including their 3-2 loss to Leipzig at the weekend. Similarly, PSG continue to find solid goalscoring form, netting in each of their previous 12 outings, with seven of those seeing them score three or more times in a game.
Dortmund vs PSG flier bet
- Pick: Kylian Mbappe to score two or more goals
- Odds: +380 (DraftKings)
Keeping with the goal scoring theme, we’re going to pick Kylian Mbappe to score two or more times in this match, which is priced at +380 with DraftKings.
Those odds seem generous for a player who has now scored 18 times in 19 competitive matches for his club side this season. That tally has also seen him net a brace or better in five separate matches and although an away trip to Dortmund presents a tough assignment, Mbappe is likely to get on the scoresheet at least once here.
In fact, the 24-year-old netted when these two sides met on matchday one to take his tally to four goals in five outings against Dortmund. The first of those meetings came for Monaco back during the 2016/17 campaign when he struck twice at this venue in a surprise 3-2 win for the French side.