Best NBA prop bets today: Nikola Jokić, Kristaps Porziņģis highlight top over/under picks

With no games scheduled for Turkey Day, the NBA’s Wednesday night slate is as loaded as an all-you-can-eat Thanksgiving buffet. We can’t wait to tune in for the embarrassment of hoops riches between 7:00 and 10:30 p.m. ET — a whopping 14 games in all — and we’re also excited to bring you our four favorite SuperDraft player props for the evening.

SN Bets has been having a grand ol’ time to kick off the holiday season, and the SuperDraft prop market has been a big reason for our holly-jolly moods. Three of our four-prop parlays have hit over the past few weeks, and we crushed two of our top three OVER bets last night.

In case you missed our SuperDraft column for Tuesday’s In-Season Tournament action, we highlighted the OVER for Tyrese Haliburton’s assist total (12) and Tobias Harris’s scoring total (20). Hali finished with 16 dimes and Harris had 23 points, easy money for anyone who rolled those two props into a player prop parlay for a quick triple-up. 

You know our M.O. by now: we do the research and find the best values on the SuperDraft player prop market. We deep-dive split stats and matchup data, look for angles to attack, then share the picks we’ve pinpointed for you in a concise little column. It’s as simple as StoveTop Stuffing and canned cranberry sauce, and it usually produces similarly appealing results.

Let’s get to our picks and break down four of our favorite player props on SuperDraft for Wednesday night’s massive NBA slate. Remember: you don’t necessarily have to combine all four picks together. You could make separate two-leg parlays to increase your win probability, or you could attempt to hit it big if all four picks come through. Good luck, have fun, and have a happy and safe Thanksgiving with your loved ones!

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Best NBA prop bets today: Top player prop picks 

1. Nikola Jokić, C, Nuggets at Magic — OVER 9 assists

Jokić has been incredibly dominant in just about every facet of the game this season (what else is new?) — so much so that his player prop projections have become astronomically high. His SuperDraft over/under for points, rebounds, and assists this evening: 31, 13, and nine. And nobody even bats an eye! He’s that good. 

The reason we like Joker to hit 10 assists tonight is because Denver draws a road game against a young, scrappy Magic squad that has actually been pretty good at defending the interior. The past three centers to face Orlando — Jakob Poeltl, Myles Turner, and Nikola Vucevic — all failed to exceed 10 points or 10 rebounds. While Jokić is head-and-shoulders better than all three of those bigs, we still don’t like him to score or rebound his way to a Nuggets victory tonight. 

With Orlando likely focusing a great deal of attention on doubling Jokić and getting physical with him down low, we like the two-time MVP to create for others and constantly find open shooters. Denver has done a great job spacing the floor this season, just as it did in its Finals run five months ago. The three-point shooting of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (42.6%), Michael Porter Jr. (37.7%), Christian Braun (38.5%), and Reggie Jackson (35.8%) has been instrumental to the Nugs’ 10-4 start, especially with star point guard Jamal Murray on the shelf with a hamstring injury. 

Jokić averaged 23/11/10 against Orlando last season, and we like him to come away with 10-plus dimes for the sixth time this season after a couple of down games and a much-needed Tuesday off. The assist props have been kind to us lately, as we easily crushed the over/under for Tyrese Haliburton (O/U 12) and Devin Booker (O/U 8.5) last night. Let’s keep the fun rolling and back Joker for a third-straight dime-casher.


2. Kristaps Porziņģis, C, Celtics vs. Bucks — OVER 20 points 

One of the best parts of the Porziņģis acquisition for Boston has been the big man’s ability to step up in big games against tough opponents. Where Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have stumbled at times in the past, the Unicorn has been the go-to guy again and again for the Celtics.

Need some proof? Porziņģis has averaged 21.6 points per game against teams with records of .500 or better this season. Now KP and the Celtics draw a home game against the rival Bucks, perhaps the stiffest challenge Boston has been presented with during the early stages of this campaign. 

We think the Zinger will be up to the challenge. In three games against Milwaukee last season, Porziņģis averaged 22.7 points per game, and that was while he was still with the lowly Wizards. Now that he enjoys the company of vastly better playmakers around him, the smooth-shooting Latvian should be able to hit 21 (Black Jack!) for the fourth time in six games. 

3. Desmond Bane, G/F, Grizzlies at Rockets — UNDER 26.5 points

The Rockets have been playing pretty good perimeter defense under Ime Udoka of late, and we like former Grizzlies pot-stirrer Dillon Brooks to get up in a major way for this one. We don’t typically subscribe to “revenge game” narratives, but we’ll make the exception in this case. Bane has been straight chucking for the 3-10 Grizz with Ja Morant suspended, Jaren Jackson Jr. struggling, and Steven Adams on the shelf, but chucking doesn’t always translate to scoring.

Even if you take 27 shots in a bad offense, scoring 27 points is a tall task against a young, physical defense on the road. We like JJJ to have a better game in this one, with younger, undisciplined interior defenders like Alperen Şengün and Jabari Smith likely getting into some foul trouble for Houston. We’re banking on Brooks being the bane of Bane’s existence tonight (alliteration for the win).

4. Jonas Valančiūnas, C, Pelicans vs. Kings — OVER 13.5 points

Jokić, Porziņģis, Valančiūnas — we’ve got all the fun foreign names in this column! Love it. We also love Big V against Domantas Sabonis and the Kings at home. Since the start of the 2021-22 season, the Lithuanian big man has averaged 17.4 points and 11.6 rebounds against the Kings while shooting over 59 percent from the floor.

With Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram both healthy for the Pels, Valančiūnas can exert his size and strength on small opponents like Sabonis without worrying much about help defense coming from the weak side. With emerging second-year three-and-D man Keegan Murray nursing a back injury, Sactown could be relying more on JaVale McGee and Harrison Barnes down low than Mike Brown would probably prefer. This is our least favorite prop of the four — and we would probably run the first three in a parlay on their own — but we like this one enough to include it in a separate two-fer. 

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