Best NBA prop bets today: Jayson Tatum, Victor Wembanyama highlight Friday’s top over/under picks

Friday night hoops will be in full effect this evening, with nine In-Season Tournament games lined up between 7:00 and 10:00 p.m. ET. Among the highlights, we’ll see reigning MVP Joel Embiid and the 76ers head to Motown to play the Pistons, rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs host Anthony Edwards and the surprising Timberwolves, and Jayson Tatum and the Celtics take on the old-rival Nets. It will be a must-see TV Friday for hoops fans, and a great opportunity for us to put together a four-prop parlay on SuperDraft

If you tailed my SuperDraft props on Wednesday, you made some pretty sweet hump-day dough. We had Embiid under 12 rebounds, Wemby under 19.5 points, Tyrese Haliburton over 11.5 assists, and Kristaps Porzingis over 23.5 points + rebounds, and we hit on all four. That’s how we roll, Sporting News friends!

Like always, we do the research and then find the best values. We deep-dive split stats and matchup data and look for angles to attack, then we share the picks we have pinpointed with you in a concise little column. Easy-peasy, lemon squeezy. 

Let’s get to our picks and break down four of our favorite player props on SuperDraft for Friday night’s NBA slate. Remember: you don’t necessarily have to combine all four picks together. You could make separate two-leg parlays to increase your win probability, or you could attempt to hit it big if all four picks come through. Good luck, have fun, and Happy Friday!

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Best NBA prop bets today: Top player prop picks 

1. Victor Wembanyama, F/C, Spurs vs. Timberwolves — UNDER 8.5 rebounds or UNDER 17.5 points. 

Many rolled their eyes when I highlighted Wemby under 19.5 points against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden earlier this week, but it turned into an easy green in a player prop parlay that ended up hitting for us. Now we’re pounding his under again, but this time we’re going under on his points and rebounds. Quite simply, we think the Wolves’ massive front court will give the slender rookie some issues around the hoop.

Minnesota has quietly been one of the best surprises of the young season, with defense and rebounding playing big parts of an impressive 5-2 start. With Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jaden McDaniels, and Naz Reid all playing strong D and pounding the glass, Wemby will be uncomfortable on the offensive end from the opening tip. He’ll likely settle for a lot of three-point attempts, but Chris Finch’s squad also defends the three well (Minny has allowed the sixth-fewest treys in the NBA this season). 

Speaking of league leaders, the Wolves rank second in defensive rebounding and fourth in total rebounding. Even franchise player Anthony Edwards averages over six boards per game! This is a physical, defensive-minded, board-crashing squad — all traits Wemby is not used to at this early juncture of his NBA career — so we’re expecting another disappointing outing for the young phenom. 


2. Jayson Tatum, F, Celtics vs. Nets — OVER 9.5 rebounds

Tatum has been doing it all for the Celtics, averaging 28.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game while easily clearing shooting splits of 50/40/80. The all-around effort we’ve seen from the Celtics’ All-NBA talent has been refreshing, and it’s a big reason why Boston has started the season 5-2. 

Over the past four games, JT has pulled down 11-plus rebounds three times — including an 11-board effort in Brooklyn last week and a whopping 15-rebound game last time out in Philadelphia. Back home and hoping to break the Celtics’ first losing streak of the season, Tatum should be very active on the boards once again. Smash the OVER and bet on a TD Garden double-double for the MVP hopeful. 

3. Tobias Harris, F, 76ers at Pistons — OVER 16.5 points

I would have faded this prop for Game 1, since I was down on Harris after he turned into a glorified floor-spacer last season. However, the veteran swingman has enjoyed a bounce-back under Nick Nurse, averaging 19.3 points per game while shooting an incredible 60 percent from the field. 

Harris has bested this 16.5 number in six of Philadelphia’s seven games, having scored 15 in the odd game out. He’s playing assertive basketball, getting to the rim and drawing fouls (he attempts a hair under five free throws per game and shoots 88 percent from the stripe). Against the young Pistons with stud defensive rookie Ausar Thompson likely guarding Sixers breakout guard Tyrese Maxey, we have Harris clearing 20 points tonight. 

4. Mark Williams, C, Hornets at Wizards — UNDER 8.5 rebounds

This one makes little sense to us, as Williams has gone under eight rebounds in five of Charlotte’s past six games and Washington is a quietly a good rebounding team. The second-year center’s only time going over eight was a 10-rebound effort against Dallas on Sunday, but we all know the Mavericks have one of the smallest front courts in the Association.

With Daniel Gafford and Kyle Kuza — two dudes with wingspans of over seven feet — the Wizards should be able to limit Williams on the glass for the second time in three days (Charlotte and Washington played on Wednesday, and Williams finished with seven boards). Make Mark Dub’s under the fourth leg of your parlay for a nice payday. 

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