Arsenal vs Liverpool prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for FA Cup third round match

A marquee showdown of Premier League giants accentuates the FA Cup third round fixture list as Arsenal host Liverpool with both sides hoping to avoid another early exit from the competition.

With a 2019/20 FA Cup title sandwiched in the middle, Arsenal have been bounced from this competition shockingly early in recent years, bumped out in the third or fourth round in every single attempt since 2017/18 outside of the aforementioned trophy run.

Liverpool have suffered an oddly similar fate, with their 2021/22 FA Cup title accentuating an otherwise shoddy recent run of results in this knockout tournament. Outside of that trophy, the Reds have not reached past the fifth round since a semifinal appearance in 2014/15, and only making it to the fifth round once in that stretch.

Yet regardless, the two clubs are more recently trending in opposite directions. Arsenal have lost their grip on the title race and slumped way down to fourth in the Premier League table, with just one win to three defeats in their last five matches. Liverpool, meanwhile, have taken over the lead, sitting three points adrift in first as they have begun scoring goals at will.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Arsenal vs Liverpool and bet FA Cup matches

Arsenal vs Liverpool prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Liverpool (+235)
  • Score prediction: Arsenal 1-3 Liverpool

It’s wild that the Reds, given their exceptional form compared to that of their slumping opponents, are such underdogs in this match. Sure, the Gunners are at home, and anything can (and probably will) happen in this game, but the line is almost fishy in nature — which surely gives us pause (what do the oddsmakers know?), but it’s too good to pass up.

These two teams played to a hard-fought draw last time out less than a month ago, but the Reds hit the woodwork twice in that game as they had the better chances following Arsenal’s early opener. On the whole, Jurgen Klopp has had great success against Arsenal, with just one outright defeat to the Gunners in his last 11 attempts dating back to the COVID season.

There’s a chance both managers rotate their squads for an early-round FA Cup matchup regardless of opponent, but if they do, it only favours the Reds further as Jurgen Klopp can rest easy knowing he has the far deeper bench to pick from.

  DraftKings
(USA)
Arsenal win
(90 mins)
-105
Draw
(90 mins)
+275
Liverpool win
(90 mins)
+235
Both teams
to score Y/N
-190 / +130
Over / Under
2.5 goals
-170 / +115
Arsenal
to advance
-138
(FanDuel)
Liverpool
to advance
+112
(FanDuel)

Arsenal vs Liverpool match facts

  • Date: Sunday, Jan. 7, 2024
  • Kickoff Time: 4:30 p.m. local (11:30 a.m. ET / 8:30 a.m. PT)
  • Location: Emirates Stadium (London, England)
  • Referee: John Brooks, VAR: Simon Hooper
  • Last meeting: Liverpool 1-1 Arsenal (Dec. 23, 2023 | Premier League)

Arsenal vs Liverpool best bet

  • Pick: Darwin Nunez to score or assist a goal
  • Odds: +195 (FanDuel)

With Mohamed Salah already having departed for his upcoming Africa Cup of Nations journey, Darwin Nunez figures to be a key component of the Liverpool attack. The Uruguayan has been integral to the Reds up front in recent weeks, and while his finishing still leaves something to be desired, his volume certainly makes up for it.

Nunez failed to score last time out against Newcastle despite logging a gargantuan 1.87 xG on eight shots, but he did pick up an assist in that match for his troubles. Each time Nunez has logged at least 0.3 xA this season, he has been rewarded with an assist, as the rest of the Liverpool attack comes good on his creative contributions.

To make things even more enticing, Nunez has been seemingly rotate-proof for Jurgen Klopp, playing a role in all three EFL Cup matches to date with two starts, and even scoring in his one substitute Cup appearance. Expect Nunez to be involved here, and potentially against a rotated Arsenal side.

Arsenal vs Liverpool prop bet

  • Pick: Liverpool 13+ shots
  • Odds: +100 (FanDuel)

As Liverpool begin to hit their best attacking form, the Reds have hit this threshold in every single Premier League match except one since the end of September, and in all but three league games this year, including a 13-shot output against Arsenal less than a month ago. Heck, they’re coming off a gargantuan 34-shot pummeling of Newcastle last time out on New Year’s Day.

With all the odds for this match wildly skewed in favour of Arsenal, the chance to back an average Liverpool showing is absolutely worth the significant value, even if Jurgen Klopp rotates his deep squad.

Arsenal vs Liverpool live stream, TV channel

Region TV channel Streaming
USA  — ESPN+
Canada Sportsnet Sportsnet Now
UK BBC One BBC iPlayer

The broadcast rights for the 2023/24 FA Cup in the United States are owned by ESPN, with every game across the competition shown on ESPN+.


In Canada, Sportsnet hold the broadcast rights to the FA Cup, with all matches spread across the company’s family of networks as well as their streaming service Sportsnet Now.

In the UK, the broadcast rights to this FA Cup match are owned by BBC, who will put the game on BBC One and their iPlayer streaming service.

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